Hadjar to miss third F1 race due to injury: Lawson steps in at Red Bull

Isack Hadjar, the Racing Bulls driver, will continue to sit out the Spanish Grand Prix this weekend in Madrid, marking the third consecutive race he has missed due to injury. The information was confirmed by Autosport.com, citing Red Bull directly. Accordingly, Liam Lawson, who was promoted to the main Red Bull Racing team at the start of the season, will continue to take the number 22 car in place of Hadjar, while Yuki Tsunoda remains at Racing Bulls.

This is an unusual situation in modern F1, where driver lineup stability is often considered the foundation for a team's development. Hadjar's absence for three consecutive races not only affects Racing Bulls' results but also raises questions about injury management processes and the preparation of replacement personnel.

Injury context and replacement

Hadjar, a French-Algerian driver, sustained an injury during a practice session before the Bahrain Grand Prix in early April. Specific details of the injury were not disclosed, but according to team sources, he suffered a shoulder and neck injury that directly affects his ability to control the steering wheel and withstand G-forces in high-speed corners. Initially, the team hoped Hadjar would only miss one race, but his recovery progressed slower than expected, forcing the team to extend the replacement period.

Liam Lawson, the 23-year-old New Zealander, was called up from his reserve driver role. Lawson previously drove for AlphaTauri (the predecessor of Racing Bulls) in the 2026 season, so he is not entirely unfamiliar with the Red Bull system. However, having to switch between two different teams in the middle of a season is a major challenge, especially when he has to adapt to the RB-spec car of Red Bull instead of the Racing Bulls car he drove in earlier tests.

The decision to place Lawson at Red Bull rather than promoting Tsunoda is a clear strategic signal from Red Bull. Tsunoda, who has been part of the Red Bull system since 2026, has always been highly rated for his speed but lacks consistency under pressure. Keeping Tsunoda at Racing Bulls shows that Red Bull still wants him to gain more experience before giving him a bigger opportunity, while also allowing Lawson, who is considered a more promising young talent, to test himself in a championship-winning environment.

Impact on Racing Bulls and Red Bull

Hadjar's absence is a significant loss for Racing Bulls. Hadjar, despite having only his first full season in F1, has shown impressive speed and the ability to score points in races. He has scored 6 points in the first 4 races, helping Racing Bulls sit 6th in the constructors' standings. Missing him for three consecutive races means the team loses an important source of points, while also disrupting the development of a young driver who is on the rise.

For Red Bull, Lawson replacing Hadjar does not directly affect the team's championship strategy, as Max Verstappen remains the lead driver. However, having Lawson adapt to the RB-spec car in the middle of a season is a risk. Each driver has a different driving style, and changing drivers may force the team to adjust car setup, affecting overall performance. Lawson needs to quickly adapt to the braking system, suspension, and aerodynamic characteristics of the Red Bull car, which is optimized for Verstappen's driving style.

One notable point is that the Madrid Grand Prix is a new addition to the calendar this year, with a street-style circuit. This requires teams to have thorough preparation in simulation and data. Lawson, who will have only a few days to get familiar with the car before the official practice sessions, will face immense pressure. Lack of experience driving this car on a real track could make it difficult for him to find the car's limits, especially in high-speed areas and slow corners typical of street circuits.

Data-driven strategic analysis

From a data perspective, this change creates significant uncertainty in performance prediction models. In my 5 years of following F1, I have noticed that teams tend to lose between 0.3 and 0.5 seconds per lap when using a substitute driver who has no experience with the current car. This comes from the new driver needing at least 20-30 laps to get used to the car's reactions, especially as tire temperatures and grip levels change constantly.

In Madrid, where the track is new and has little historical data, the advantage of a driver with prior experience in that car is huge. Lawson will have only one practice session before qualifying, while Hadjar has had 4 races to accumulate data. This gap could cause Racing Bulls to miss scoring opportunities in a race where they aim to compete in the midfield.

However, I also note that Lawson is a very adaptable driver. In the 2026 season, when he was called up to replace Daniel Ricciardo at AlphaTauri, he scored points in his first race at Monza. This shows his ability to read situations and adjust his driving style flexibly. If Lawson can leverage that experience, he could partially compensate for the lack of track time.

Contrarian view

Many might argue that Hadjar's absence is an opportunity for Lawson to prove himself and secure a permanent seat at Red Bull in the future. However, I see it differently. Having Lawson drive an unfamiliar car, on a new track, under the pressure of a top team, could lead to mistakes and diminish his value in the driver market. In football, we often see young players thrown into the first team too early and lose confidence. F1 is similar.

Another blind spot many analysts overlook is the impact of Hadjar's absence on Racing Bulls' development as a team. Hadjar is not just a driver but also part of the team's technical development process. He has worked closely with engineers to improve the suspension and braking systems, and his absence could slow the car's development progress for the rest of the season. This could affect the team's competitiveness in subsequent races, even after Hadjar returns.

Conclusion

Hadjar missing a third consecutive race is a major challenge for both Racing Bulls and Red Bull. While Red Bull can maintain its lead in the standings thanks to Verstappen, Racing Bulls will have to work hard to maintain its position in the midfield battle. Lawson will have a chance to prove his worth, but he is also facing an extremely difficult task.

Data never rushes, but people are always hasty. Let the Madrid race speak.